Scientific-Military Article:
Infiltration and Exfiltration in Modern Warfare Strategies - Case Study: Russian Dnieper Advance in the Ukraine Campaign

Introduction

In modern warfare, classic combat strategies have undergone fundamental changes. While large-scale tank battles and frontal mass attacks dominated war scenarios in the 20th century, highly dynamic, technology-supported tactics are increasingly coming to the fore in the 21st century. At the heart of this development are asymmetric operations, particularly infiltration and exfiltration. These methods make it possible to penetrate enemy territory without provoking open confrontations – with the aim of locating weak points, undermining defensive structures, and deliberately destabilizing key regions.

A current and extremely explosive example of the application of such concepts is the ongoing Ukrainian campaign, in which the Russian Federation has repeatedly combined hybrid tactics with traditional warfare. One conceivable scenario that could potentially be strategically decisive is a large-scale infiltration push across the Dnieper River from the south – with the aim of cutting a path through the Ukrainian interior through controlled escalation in several phases and forcing a surrender or withdrawal of Ukrainian forces to western parts of the country.

This article details four potential phases of this scenario, considering the operational logic, possible troop movements, the role of reconnaissance and special forces, and the gradual use of drones, artillery, and heavy equipment. The structure is based on realistic military capabilities, known Russian warfare doctrines, and the topographical and logistical conditions in the southern Dnieper region.

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Phase 1: Infiltration by Reconnaissance and Special Forces

In the initial phase, the focus is on covert infiltration by highly specialized units. The goal is to operate below the radar and reconnaissance thresholds of the Ukrainian defenses. The reconnaissance elements consist of small groups (8-12 men) trained to operate independently in hostile terrain.

These forces could operate through amphibious operations, airborne night landings, or stealth river crossings across the lower Dnieper (e.g., between Nova Kakhovka and Nikopol). This region is flat, partly swampy, with numerous canals—ideal for cover and camouflage. The goal of this phase is to scout out bridgehead-capable zones, identify enemy sensor networks, and expose logistical vulnerabilities.

In parallel with these operations, initial attacks could be carried out by so-called "terror drones" – loitering munitions (kamikaze drones). These attacks target infrastructure such as power grids, radar installations, and command centers to undermine defenses, create confusion, and divert resources.

Key parameters of this phase:

Phase 2: Establishment of a beachhead by a division (approx. 10,000 men) & Area Infiltration

Once favorable zones have been identified, the transition to large-scale infiltration takes place in Phase 2: A full-fledged division – around 10,000 men – is quickly transported across the river, primarily at night and using mobile river logistics (light pontoon bridges, stealth boats, amphibious vehicles). The goal is to establish a stable bridgehead in a narrowly defined area – e.g. B. at Nova Kakhovka, with a forward security ring.

This division operates defensively and offensively: It secures the terrain, combats spontaneous counterattacks, and begins to operate deep into the hinterland using drone warfare. Swarms of surveillance and attack drones are deployed to disrupt Ukrainian supply routes, convoys, smaller depots, and mobilization centers.

Key parameters of this phase:

Phase 3: Securing the Dnieper Corridor by 5 divisions (approx. 50,000 troops) & Stationary artillery

Once the bridgehead is established, the third phase takes the form of massive reinforcements. Approximately five divisions (approx. 50,000 men) are moved to the western side of the Dnieper via mobile pontoons, temporary bridges, and airlift. The width of the controlled zone grows significantly – Initial urban areas and hubs (e.g., Kryvyi Rih in the northwest) could be included.

At the same time, heavy artillery, air defense systems (e.g., Pantsir-S1, Tor-M2), and tactical electronic warfare (EW) systems are being deployed to neutralize enemy drones. Large guns and rocket artillery such as the 2S7 Pion or Tornado-S are being camouflaged directly in the river and nearby wetlands, making attacks by satellite and radar more difficult.

The expansion of the bridgehead will allow for systematic penetration of the Ukrainian interior, particularly by disrupting logistical axes toward Kyiv and the Dnipro. Drones, reconnaissance balloons, and electronic attack measures work together here.

Key parameters of this phase:

Phase 4: Advance of heavy combat units & Air Defense Integration to Force Surrender

In the final phase, the area of ​​operations will be fully militarized: tank brigades, motorized infantry, infantry fighting vehicles (BMP-3), heavy anti-aircraft systems (S-400, Buk-M3), and airborne units will be deployed. The goal is to use this heavily armored force to drive a swath well over 100 km wide into the Ukrainian interior, with final targets such as Zaporizhia, Dnipro, and potentially further west to Vinnytsia.

The deep front allows freedom of operations in a pincer movement, which could cut off Ukrainian forces moving eastward from the west. In addition, heavy electronic warfare systems would disrupt the defenders' communications.

This phase is designed to have a decisive impact on the war. The psychological impact on the population, the political leadership, and the military would be enormous: Ukraine would face a choice between immediate surrender or the withdrawal of all forces to the western regions. Such a situation could effectively amount to a division of the country.

Key parameters of this phase:

Summary & Assessment

The presented tactic of the four-phase Dnieper infiltration combines classical and modern warfare elements: special operations, information warfare, drone support, artillery, and armored masses. It is based on the principle of controlled escalation, in which each phase lays the foundation for the next.

The theoretical risk of loss – approximately 50,000 troops – is proportional to the potential effect: the division of Ukraine, the destruction of its military structure, and a forced abandonment of the resistance through moral, infrastructural, and psychological pressure. Such an operation, however, would require the highest level of planning, discipline, and coordination – especially against a motivated Ukrainian military operating with home advantage.

Nevertheless, the scenario shows that infiltration and exfiltration are not just means of reconnaissance or guerrilla warfare in modern warfare – but potentially the key to large-scale, decisive front shiftsexercises.

COPYRIGHT ToNEKi Media UG (limited liability)

AUTHOR: THOMAS JAN POSCHADEL

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