Scenario of a global energy shortage due to exponential global warming and resource scarcity

11/20/2024

The scenario I describe takes into account both the already ongoing global warming and the potential geopolitical and resource challenges that could accompany exponential growth and a looming energy crisis. Here are the main factors that would influence this scenario:

Exponential growth in energy demand and climate change

The exponential growth of the world's population and energy demand would lead to a dramatic increase in resource consumption in a scenario like yours. If we also consider climate change, which was already at 1.5 degrees warming in 2014 and is now accelerating, the future energy supply will become even more precarious. An increase in global warming due to the release of greenhouse gases from the oceans and permafrost could significantly exacerbate the climate crisis. These feedback loops lead to a drastic deterioration of the global environmental situation and make many energy sources such as photovoltaics ineffective, as the availability of sunlight could also be severely limited by extreme weather phenomena or the increase of CO2 and other particles in the atmosphere.

Depletion of resources and energy sources

The lack of reliable energy sources would lead to an enormous challenge for energy supply. If nuclear fusion does not succeed and other scalable renewable technologies, such as wind power or geothermal energy, cannot be sufficiently developed, countries such as Europe, which only has limited uranium reserves, would have to rely on fossil fuels or alternative energy sources. If these are also restricted due to geopolitical isolation and resource control by other countries, a massive energy shortage could occur. Especially in a scenario in which Russia or America no longer supply energy products, Europe would be left to its own devices.

Geopolitical isolation and national resource control

The assumption of an isolated world situation in which right-wing political forces predominate and national borders are again more tightly controlled would significantly restrict access to international resources. Countries that protect their remaining resources could no longer allow energy exports. This isolation would further reduce the ability of Europe and other countries to deal with resource shortages and make energy supplies even more difficult.

Climate impacts: rising sea levels and loss of habitats

With warming of 2 degrees Celsius and more, sea levels could rise dramatically due to the melting of glaciers and ice sheets. Recent scientific research shows that Greenland contains more ice than previously thought and consists of many islands, which would result in much greater ice melt. Sea level rise could range from 1 meter per year to up to 40 to 60 meters in total, significantly affecting not only coastal regions but also large landlocked countries that depend on water supplies and agriculture. The loss of arable land and drinking water sources would lead to further global crises, further exacerbating energy demand and resource distribution.

Technological setbacks and lack of solutions

If the development of nuclear fusion fails and there are no adequate alternatives to energy supplies from fossil fuels or renewable energies, the global community would face an existential crisis. If technological advances and solutions in energy production, climate research and resource use are not developed quickly and in a scalable manner, energy shortages could have dramatic effects on the quality of life and industrial production worldwide.

Timing of the crisis

It is difficult to predict exactly when such a situation could occur. However, under the given assumptions and with continued exponential growth in energy demand and increasing climate change, such a crisis could occur in the next 50 to 100 years. The exact timing depends on the speed of climate change, the development of new technologies and the politicaln willingness to cooperate. It could well take a decade or more for the global community to feel the full impact of climate change and resource scarcity. However, if effective measures are not taken to mitigate the climate crisis and stabilize energy supplies, this timeframe could be significantly shortened.

Conclusion

The scenario described of a global energy crisis caused by exponential growth, climate change and geopolitical tensions is worrying, but not infinitely likely. It depends heavily on the technological, political and societal decisions of the coming decades. Currently, based on current trends, the future may look bleak, requiring urgent action to prevent such a catastrophe.