Erosion of the Rule of Law

The complete disintegration of rule of law elements in a real democratic state is a serious process that has not completely occurred worldwide in this form between 2010 and 2025 – at least not comprehensively in Western democracies. However, there were and are concerning trends, erosions, and systematic weakening of the principles of the rule of law in various countries. Below is a detailed, scientifically oriented description of how, during this period – especially in certain states – a development away from the classical rule of law could occur or indicate:

2. Definition: Elements of the Rule of Law

The rule of law is based on fundamental principles such as:

  • Separation of powers

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  • Independence of the judiciary

  • Binding of state action to laws

  • Transparency

  • Equality before the law

  • Protection of fundamental rights

  • Free media as a control instance

A disintegration of these elements typically manifests in authoritarian tendencies, erosion of the separation of powers and freedom of expression, as well as the political appropriation of police, justice system, or administration.

3. Global Development (2010–2025): A Fragmented Erosion

A) Eastern Europe: Poland and Hungary as Pioneers of Dismantling

Poland:

  • 2015: Victory of the PiS party.

  • Starting in 2016: Reforms of the Constitutional Tribunal (political influence).

  • 2017: Reforms in the judiciary → Judges under political control.

  • EU rule of law proceedings starting in 2017.

  • Restrictions for media, NGOs, protesters.

Hungary:

  • Since 2010 (Viktor Orbán's election victory): Transformation into an "illiberal democracy".

  • Constitutional amendments, restrictions on independent media.

  • Judiciary under government influence.

  • Control over universities, NGOs, press.

Conclusion: In both countries, rule of law structures were deliberately weakened – often under the guise of "reforms" or "national sovereignty."

B) USA: Erosion Under Trump (2016–2021), Aftermath Until 2025

  • The separation of powers was deliberately undermined through personnel policy.

  • Disregard for independent judiciary and journalism.

  • Attempts to manipulate the election in 2020 (e.g., Georgia phone calls, Capitol storming on January 6, 2021).

  • Instrumentalization of institutions (e.g., Justice Department, Homeland Security).

  • Long-term delegitimization of democratic processes.

C) Brazil, Turkey, India, Israel: Rule of Law Under Pressure

  • Brazil (under Bolsonaro, 2019–2022):

    • Attacks on courts, electoral authorities, indigenous rights.

  • Turkey (after the attempted coup in 2016):

    • Tens of thousands of judges, teachers, civil servants dismissed.

    • State of emergency laws, de facto dismantling of the separation of powers.

  • India (under Modi):

    • Nationalistic-religious politics.

    • Discrimination against religious minorities.

    • Political pressure on courts.

  • Israel (2023/2024):

    • Massive protests against planned judicial reforms.

    • Goal: Reduction of judicial control powers.

4. Technological and Social Factors (Transnational)

A) Digitization & Surveillance

  • Mass surveillance by states (see Snowden revelations in 2013).

  • AI-supported surveillance in China → glass citizen, social credit system.

  • Even in democracies, a tendency to expand state access rights (e.g., BND law, Trojan horse in Germany).

B) Disinformation & Loss of Control

  • Increase in targeted disinformation campaigns (Russia, troll farms, deepfakes).

  • Polarization through algorithms (e.g., YouTube radicalization effects).

  • “Post-factual era” → Rational discourse and legal argumentation lose importance.

5. Tension in Germany (2010–2025)

Germany has not experienced a complete destruction of the principles of the rule of law, but:

  • NSU complex, police failure, authority failure (2011–2019).

  • Scandals surrounding right-wing networks in the police/Bundeswehr.

  • Citizens' movements, coup plots, erosion of trust in security authorities.

  • Corona measures: Criticism of proportionality, data protection, intensity of intervention – but largely confirmed by the Federal Constitutional Court.

  • Growing skepticism towards justice and media, fueled by AfD, Querdenker & Co.

  • Attempt to influence public broadcasters politically (e.g., in Saxony-Anhalt).

6. Scientific Assessment of the Disintegration

Indicators for the disintegration of the rule of law according to political science research:

  • Democratic Backsliding (Bermeo, 2016).

  • Rule of Law Index (WJP) and Freedom House Scores show clear regressions.

  • OECD reports document:

    • Loss of media freedom

    • Increase in authoritarian leadership styles

    • Weakening of civil rights

7. Conclusion: No Total Collapse, but a Gradual Erosion

The period from 2010 to 2025 shows no global total collapse of rule of law systems, but:

  • Targeted erosion in several states (especially Hungary, Turkey, Poland, USA, Israel, Brazil).

  • Technological, ideological and economic crises (e.g., migration, pandemic, inflation, climate crisis, AI) have created pressure on the rule of law.

  • Democracy and the rule of law are not stable per se but depend on active protection by society, media, and justice.

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AUTHOR:  THOMAS JAN POSCHADEL

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